Coward Old Universe…

by Jeremy G.

Giuliani’s dead…

Posted by Jeremy Ghez on January 30, 2008

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It’s not the first time, but I was wrong about Giuliani.  After his third place tonight, in Florida, the former mayor is likely to quit tomorrow and endorse tonight’s big winner, John McCain.

Giuliani might just become an interesting case study for political science and elections.  His fifty day media blitz in Florida did not allow him to get any national time, and thus benefit from the same momentum McCain gained in previous primaries.  Giuliani’s dream is over.  Momentum, more than money, still matters.

What is to follow is probably even more interesting.  I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which Huckabee or Romney could turn this around.  On his end, McCain will probably be less popular with the base of the Republican Party, but will have much more appeal with the Independents, and most of all, all these Democrats who hate Clinton – should she get the nomination. 

One open question for McCain, in this context, is who to chose for Vice President?  One strategy would emphasize the need to reach out to the Republican base which, according to the Karl Rove school of thought, is the gets the party’s nominee elected.  The other strategy would consist in fighting on Democrat ground, and aim for a more liberal Vice President.  Given his huge defeat in this primary, Giuliani is an unlikely candidate – his endorsement for McCain will suffice.  Other names, including Independents Michael Bloomberg and John Lieberman, pop up.

Much will depend on who the Democrats choose.  One thing is sure: McCain is becoming the worse nightmare for Democrats.

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