Subliminal Message

I think I have just figured out how Obama might just loose the coming November contest.

The Democrats have presented a McCain victory as George W. Bush’s third term in office, contrasting with an Obama victory, a symbol of rupture and an end to Washington politics, or so they claim.  However, by choosing  Delaware  Senator Joe Biden to complete his presidential ticket, Obama  has  given conservatives an  unusual opportunity to reverse roles.  Indeed, Fox News commentators have repeatedly compared this ticket to the Bush-Cheney ticket, in which the Vice President was chosen for his foreign policy credentials and experience, in order to balance the ticket.  In other words, continuation is an Obama victory in November.

Admittedly, the theory is a bit outlandish.  But the real point is that McCain, the maverick, the unexpected Republican who would be president, could actually be the man who will best stand for rupture with past political practices, given today’s turn of events.  The conservative brand has greatly suffered from the past eight years and would hugely benefit from a gamble, as risky as it may be.  This is why I stand by what I wrote here, back in February.  It’s really time to be good.

The “New Yorker” votes for McCain

If you have to explain the satire and say over and over it’s only satire and not what you actually think, it must mean that this is pretty poor satire…  This is what one may feel in the latest New Yorker scandal, whose cover pictured Obama dressed as Bin Laden, along with his wife dressed as Rambo, in the Oval office, where an American flag is burning and a portrait of the United States’ enemy is placed in evidence on the wall.

 

 

Beyond this joke – which is not so funny – one may wonder what objectives the New Yorker is actually pursuing, if it is not promoting John McCain as the best candidate.  The caricature has forced Obama to repeat once again that he is not a Muslim and that he was raised in a Christian environment.  By saying this, once again, Obama is:

1. Alienating Muslim Americans, who will start to feel that their religion is not an asset in U.S. political life.
2. Likely to be targeted – once more – by the far right who will claim that only guilty men try to defend themselves.
3. Obligated to get off message in order to fix this misinformation, while success is not at all guaranteed.

 

The New Yorker rarely impressed me given its inability to step away from ideology in order to take a pragmatic look at today’s political reality.  Would the election of a Democratic President set a dilemma for a paper which has not had much to offer in terms of ideas, these past seven years?  

This latest episode leads me to believe that America deserves a bit better.  The Obama-McCain dual is most certainly an image representing America at its best, but the media seems to be missing the point…

 

 

Johnny Be Good…

 

It looks good for McCain.  He just announced that he’s now hoping that mothers from his home state, Arizona, will be able one day to tell their children: “You’ll grow up to be President…”

If he does get the nomination, who will get the Vice-Presidency?  Rumors and speculation – as well as common sense, arguably - point to Huckabee: He’s young, much more conservative and probably much more appealing to the Conservative base McCain will have a hard time with.  Will this be enough for McCain to conquer the Republican Party?  Perhaps…  Some still seem to prefer Hillary though - probably because they’ll be more able to explain why they hate the President.

 

But a bit more chutzpah on the part of McCain would be appreciable.  Most Democrats claim today that eight years of Bush will make any Republican candidate look bad.  McCain should call them on their bluff, and show enough pragmatism to get on his ticket a Lieberman or a Bloomberg, and finally do things differently in D.C., and not just pretend.  Pragmatism, and a bit less ideology – that works also for the Left. 

Giuliani’s dead…

 

It’s not the first time, but I was wrong about Giuliani.  After his third place tonight, in Florida, the former mayor is likely to quit tomorrow and endorse tonight’s big winner, John McCain.

Giuliani might just become an interesting case study for political science and elections.  His fifty day media blitz in Florida did not allow him to get any national time, and thus benefit from the same momentum McCain gained in previous primaries.  Giuliani’s dream is over.  Momentum, more than money, still matters.

What is to follow is probably even more interesting.  I have a hard time imagining a scenario in which Huckabee or Romney could turn this around.  On his end, McCain will probably be less popular with the base of the Republican Party, but will have much more appeal with the Independents, and most of all, all these Democrats who hate Clinton – should she get the nomination. 

One open question for McCain, in this context, is who to chose for Vice President?  One strategy would emphasize the need to reach out to the Republican base which, according to the Karl Rove school of thought, is the gets the party’s nominee elected.  The other strategy would consist in fighting on Democrat ground, and aim for a more liberal Vice President.  Given his huge defeat in this primary, Giuliani is an unlikely candidate – his endorsement for McCain will suffice.  Other names, including Independents Michael Bloomberg and John Lieberman, pop up.

Much will depend on who the Democrats choose.  One thing is sure: McCain is becoming the worse nightmare for Democrats.